Time may not be on our side. One cannot overview the world and our political circumstances… and the calendar, without realizing a little fear for where things might go from here. Where is that?
Let’s look at some of the pressures building up.
First, the political time-line. Mid-term elections are the historic relief valve for sometimes hasty or confused political decisions made during presidential elections two years earlier. There certainly were those in 2020. Because the national conscience is so, well… impacted by beliefs concerning the 2020 elections – stolen or not stolen – the release of tensions in the 2022 mid-terms is a little harder to predict than what a lot of pundits are trying to foresee. Most are making judgements on “normal” political considerations and it doesn’t seem Prudent to do so.
The weird eminence that most have already discounted, but who is the key to millions of voters’ decisions, is Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House. She has been a unique Speaker, at least. For decades she has appeared to be simply a fierce partisan and has been appreciated, if not revered, by partisan Democrats who were happy to be “winning” barely-understood battles through her slick machinations. By rights, she should be at the end of her career, and she probably is, but it’s a career that descended into a previously unrecognized socialism starting under Obama and deepening with hatred under Trump. In those 12 years, Democrats became uneasy. While enjoying victories Nancy engineered, no matter how messy, Dems also became concerned about the leftward lurch, yet had no other port in which to seek refuge. Over the Trump years, leftist hatred for “America First” left many Democrats adrift. What are they going to do in 2022?
If “centrist” or “American” Democrats abandon the Pelosi-led leftists (not that Pelosi was elected to lead the leftists: she has run, skipped twisted and kneeled as needed to stay ahead of them) will they suddenly vote Republican? That doesn’t seem Prudent. Will they fail to vote in standard numbers? That question forces Prudence to wonder about what “the Black vote” might do.
Blacks have slowly been drifting away from their Democrat plantation, with an interesting increase in that trend in 2020. Despite Covid, Blacks did well economically under Trump since 2017. Despite, also, a perpetual anti-Trump media blitz accusing Trump of racism, Blacks could see that his policies helped all races. Like all underdogs, Trump was seen somewhat sympathetically by Blacks who understood too well how prejudice hurts. Have Blacks been treated better by increasing leftism? Were they advanced by BLM-led riots and Antifa hatreds that damaged so many black businesses and jobs? Have they been helped by Democrats’ union-led resistance to school choice? Has weakening public safety served Black families or neighborhoods in any way? Are they particularly likely to “reward” Pelosi’s weird coalitions with more power, more votes? That doesn’t seem Prudent, either. But, will they vote for anyone else?
So, on the backdrop of multiple failures of the “Biden” administration and severe economic news, what will be the “shape” of the change in fortunes for our two parties? Over the next 11 months, how virulent will the Pelosi Left become? Clearly their anger has been kindled by the loss of legislative momentum thanks to West Virginia Senator, Joe Manchin and Arizona Senator, Kyrsten Sinema. Even 3 counties of Maryland would like to become part of West Virginia.
In 2020 we suffered through months of cultural destruction and destructive rioting and looting and economic despair in numerous cities. Many strange, leftist mayors and governors have been exposed as feckless, ignorant and ideologically foolish. Americans are practically fleeing their jurisdictions for states that seem to honor the Constitution more. Yet the Pelosi House insisted on passing the enormous, so-called “Build Back Better” bill that would have transformed fundamental freedoms and democratic-republic structures created by the Constitution. Against the backdrop of systemic failure at the southern border and the flood of illegals swept into the country by administration policies, the congress spent inordinate time on the “BBB” plan and the pointless “January 6th” commission. Not a word is spoken in congress about what Americans are truly upset about, not least of which is the southern border. With that legislation apparently doomed, what will the 117th Congress do to improve Democrats’ re-election chances in 2022? Most options are likely to do damage to the republic at least domestically.
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Internationally, the Biden bindlestiffs have made a mockery of leadership and of honesty. Without fundamental honesty, there are no diplomatic maneuvers that will work, almost regardless of what’s at stake. In matters of war and alliance, conditions, tensions, and opportunities for gross, deadly errors, can spiral out of control quite abruptly. Let’s look at the simplest area of tension: Iran.
The postulate is the following: Iran hates the United States as much or more than it hates Israel. Iran is a theocracy determined to correct spiritual wrongs to the point of suicide. To correct those wrongs, Iran will use nuclear weapons. The inherent danger is that first the Obama regime and now the Biden regime DON’T BELIEVE THESE THINGS. That is, they’d rather believe that Iran is as rational as other nations, desirous of better living standards for its people, better economic conditions internally, and willing to negotiate to achieve those ends. All this talk about “death to America” and wiping Israel off the map is just talk, just posturing. Because they don’t believe the United States can be guided by religious concepts of good and evil, neither can any other nation. The United States can show them how love is better than hate and kindness and generosity will prove that the U. S. can be a reliable partner in seeking a better life for Iranians.
As the imbecilic John F. Kerry, onetime Secretary of State once said: “Would that it were, would that it were.” For a man who has but the mildest relationship with truth, he places a lot of faith in the words of Iranian negotiators. He apparently believes that Iran is enrichening Uranium purely for domestic power production… to improve the standard of living for Iranians.
Trump, to his America-first credit, had a sense of when he was being lied-to, and that extended to Iran. He recognized that the “Iran Nuclear” agreement (never proposed as a nation-binding Treaty because it would never pass the Senate) was a pack of lies, which, naturally, Biden has been begging Iran to renew under his administration. Iran has refused, so far. With all the cash and lifting of sanctions that Obama and Biden have given them, the Iranians no longer need to negotiate further concessions under the agreement – they received what they needed for free. Now it is merely a matter of time before Iran starts issuing nuclear-backed threats toward Israel, which the Biden regime will perceive as opportunities to go “back to the negotiating table.” To their credit, Israel (and other nations in the Mideast) will take steps to prevent an Iranian strike. The U. S. won’t, failing to realize that Iran will likely strike both the Little Satan and the Big Satan simultaneously.
PRUDENT JUDGMENT: VERY DANGEROUS UNDER THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.
The next simplest, as in somewhat more complicated, problem area is the Western Pacific, including both Taiwan and North Korea, but also India, unfortunately. Here is the postulate: China intends to take over Taiwan; China virtually controls what North Korea does at any point; China will not move against Taiwan if it believes the U. S. will fight for Taiwan’s independence; China is beginning to think that the U. S. will not make any serious moves to stop China (the Biden family’s compromised position vis a’ vis China is a factor, here); and, finally, North Korea will make some sort of military moves against South Korea at the same time, seriously complicating United States’ response to the Taiwan crisis. There has been shooting along the frontier of China and India within the past 18 months. It is not inconceivable that China would stir that pre-heated kettle at the same time or before, that it moves against Taiwan. This feint would likely involve Pakistan, as well, another nuclear power that hates India. Every nation in the arc from the Arabian Sea to Qinzhou will suddenly be seeking a side in the conflict. The failure of the U. S. to decisively defend its allies will transform the entire region and its oceans… and world trade.
PRUDENT JUDGMENT: EXTREMELY DANGEROUS UNDER THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.
Finally, of the 3 hottest spots, Ukraine and Russia are preparing for some level of shooting. The U. S., thanks to Obama and Joe Biden’s family, has meddled in Ukraine for years. Ukraine is a big country that encompasses wide swaths of fertile land, great waterways, warm-water coastline on the Black Sea, huge coal deposits and iron ore, manganese ore, and other ores, which yield a large steel industry, heavy machinery manufacturing and, its greatest political weakness, a natural, relatively unimpeded pathway for oil and gas products to be transported to Western Europe. The same can transport armies, too.
For more than a thousand years the Russian people have had strong cultural and religious ties to Kyiv, now the capitol of Ukraine, and to Crimea, Odessa and Sevastopol. Strategically, the naval value of Crimea is perceived as so crucial to Russia, as with the USSR, that taking the Crimean peninsula “back” from a recently independent Ukraine was worth the international condemnation. It’s a done deal and will never be negotiable.
In addition, the industrial heartland of Ukraine in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Dnetpropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhya, covers much of eastern Ukraine from the Dneiper River to the Russian border. Russia depends on many of the manufacturers in the region for not just machinery, but military and aerospace equipment. Not having complete control of them is a sore spot. Further, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson districts have significant Russian populations and Russian-speaking populations, which has formed an excuse for Russian regulars posing as irregulars or subversives, to create an enclave of sorts with a militarized line facing Ukrainian army regulars.
Sensing weakness and indecision from the Biden administration, and determined to not have Ukraine join NATO, Putin and the Russian Federation is looking for the opportune time to, in effect, take control of eastern Ukraine, if not all of Ukraine, by military force or forced federation. When they move, what will Biden do? Both Democrats and some Republicans have made tough-sounding statements about standing firm with Ukraine as if the status of Ukraine were a vital national interest. Perhaps it is. But setting up a line of U. S. troops to deter Russia seems unduly provocative. If the situation were reversed and the Russians were placing troops to deter the U. S. from taking over cartel-dominated Mexico, let’s just say, we would certainly not find that a reason to stand down, would we?
What seems “small” to most Americans, in geopolitical terms, could place us in a hot confrontation with a huge nuclear power, 4,000 miles from our border, where both the land location and the naval one make us the underdog.
PRUDENT JUDGEMENT: VERY DANGEROUS UNDER THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION, and more dangerous than it appears.
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The shift away from “America First” thanks to the 2020 “elections,” has caused friends and foes, alike, to re-evaluate their relationships with the U. S. The brutal withdrawal from Afghanistan, apparently executed by military idiots and a bumbling president, has changed strategic calculations by many nations. The English-speaking world no longer reveres the U. S. as the leader of their coalition, and certainly does not respect Biden as it did Trump. A strong, pro-national leader is not only respected, but understood by other nations, including adversaries. There is a profound logic to leadership that clearly is patriotic and who speaks clearly of his – or her – intentions. No nation likes surprises, internationally, nor confusing messages. Every leader can make clear judgments about clear leaders, even about those they view as opponents. This is not our current situation.
It has been said many times that the most dangerous circumstance is when other nations are unsure about what America will fight for; it is yet even more dangerous when America, itself, is unsure. God save us.