Prudence, in her most Prudent way, is always trying to keep up with events, trends, purposes and consequences. And, never one to stir up trouble, Prudence must admit to being fully puzzled as to why in Hell Russia invaded Ukraine? Perhaps you are wondering the same thing.
History has shown almost every way and purpose humans can imagine for attacking, invading, occupying, destroying, annexing, blockading, burning, looting, bombing or decimating both neighboring and far-off nations or tribes or even continents. Ghengis Khan and Alexander the Great had what seemed to them and their followers, valuable reasons for dominating as many states, cities and regions as they could. Hitler had his own “good” reasons for doing the same, and most Germans and like-minded – or like-confused – neighbors went along with him. The Romans could justify what they did, so did Japan so did Lenin and Stalin in Soviet days.
One expects that Vladimir Putin has a sufficient reason to attack Ukraine, but it certainly isn’t very clear or explicable. What is going on?
Given that Mr. Putin hasn’t conferred with Prudence and is not expected to anytime soon, most evidence to which we might allude will be circumstantial at best and inferential, otherwise. Many wise people have tried to evaluate what he is trying to accomplish, including experienced military leaders. But they are making military judgements of tactics and short-term strategies and, no matter how accurate, such musings won’t explain the overall purpose of employing war to “solve” some nebulous threat from Ukraine.
Perhaps the non-existent threat from Ukraine was never the impetus for invasion.
Putin is not someone most people would want to chum around with, but he’s not stupid, nor does it seem Prudent to assume that he is mentally addled. He has managed and manipulated Russia for more than 20 years, gained power and influence geopolitically in that time, and become one of the wealthiest men in the world by cleverly holding and exercising power over the oligarchs that own or control most of Russia’s large industries and banks. A significant “vig” is paid to Putin for every significant domestic and international trade deal: he is a billionaire.
However, Mr. Putin is also messianic in terms of restoring what he perceives as the once-great Russian empire. As a loyal KGB agent, once assigned to East Germany, arguably the empire’s furthest outpost, Putin was probably less concerned about Communism than he was about the territorial and political extent of the Soviet Union. The end of the Soviet system was a severe setback in his view, and something he wishes to set aright. He had what appeared, at first, to be two audiences to satisfy as to his intent and purpose: Ukraine… and Russia. It doesn’t appear that he gave a damn about what other countries thought of his threat to return Ukraine to the Russian fold. It was strictly a local matter for Ukraine to resolve by folding in the face of his threats.
Like it or not, however, Putin’s Russia is a big puzzle piece in geopolitics. As local as he may have wished to keep his piecemeal dissection of Ukraine, Putin needed to shore up his flanks while going to war on his western border. Russia’s overall military significance is tied to its huge nuclear stockpile, at least half of which is modern enough to be reliable, which is to say, 2,000 or more warheads and hundreds of missile systems that can deliver them. Its economic significance is mainly tied to oil and natural gas and extensive mineral resources. Russia’s longest border is with China, slightly longer than that with Mongolia. There have been shooting skirmishes along the border with China and the relationship between the two countries has been likened to two praying mantises in a bottle, neither trusting the other.
Lately, however – 6 to 7 years, cooperation between the two socialist/communist giants has been more active. China’s economy, despite its problems, is 6 to 7 times that of Russia’s. Russia’s huge land area sits atop enormous natural resources, particularly in oil, gas and relatively untapped shale-oil and gas. Its population, however, is shrinking. Programs have been tried to give stipends to parents for having children, but they have not worked to bring births up to even “replacement” rates. Ultimately, along with politics, economics and industrial base, population size is the key determinant in national strength, depending on how it is achieved. Massive immigration is not, generally, the solution.
China has 5 times the population of Russia, but lacks sufficient energy resources and, because of an unintended consequence of the “one-child” policies pursued in the late 1960’s through 2010 and beyond, the bias toward boys remains. This pattern skewed the balance of boys and girls significantly, as parents aborted female fetuses. During that same period, many thousands of girl babies were “adopted out” so that families could have another baby, hopefully a boy. China’s ratio of female-to-male is 100 to 118: there are not enough marriage partners to civilize the males, essentially, or to produce enough children to replace aging workers. China well understands the importance of population quality, rather than mere quantity, and it plays a multi-decade game in its quest to be the dominant country and culture. So what, you may be asking?
The issue behind almost everything is the U. S. A. China’s “problem” is not Russia, although the CCP is perfectly happy to buy oil from Russia while it stirs up problems for the “West.” It is the United States that is the main impediment to Chinese hegemony, even in its own side of Asia and Southeast Asia. After decades of buying off the elites, Wall Street, the universities, the banks and major industries in the U. S., China has finally secured a compromised President, who it has also “bought off,” and, praise the ancient dragon-gods, is also mentally incompetent! Things seem to be aligning for China’s big move to unseat the U. S., globally.
Wait a minute, you’re saying, I thought the worst problem is the brutal destruction and wanton murder of Ukraine. Sadly, Prudence thinks not, although the brutality is the worst the world has seen – paid attention to – in 30 years, except for the murder, rape and slavery promulgated in Africa, in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Libya, Uganda, Nigeria, Mali, Angola, Namibia… and on and on. Of course those countries and tribes didn’t have such good communications or beautiful buildings to be bombed as Ukraine has / had. Besides, we like Ukraine and our President’s family scammed a lot of money there. But the dead, starving, uprooted people in Africa are just as dead or more in pain than Ukrainians, who have modern neighbors to flee to and billions of dollars of aid pouring in. Prudence hates all of it, but Americans are rather selective in our outrage.
What else has been going on in Africa these past 30 or more years? Why, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. The same long-term strategy reaches into European countries, Arab /Muslim countries, South Asia, South America and Oceania. China lends money and expertise to countries that need major infrastructure in order to compete economically, but many cannot afford to pay off the loans. China is happy to trade ownership for the notes, or lifetime access to ports, natural resources, communications systems and so forth, resulting in a densifying web of influence and military advantage that is, bit by bit, surrounding Russia as effectively as it does the United States in their Western Hemisphere efforts. Hard to tell which of us is more blind.
So, is it really Prudent to connect the “Rape of Ukraine” to China? Really? “Absolutely,” seems to be the answer.
Keep in mind that China’s actions are ALWAYS in favor of China. That kind of nationalism deserves respect, and it’s fully understandable. This is why we were safer when Trump was president: “America First.” The United States is the only country that has always tried to do things, internationally, that are better for other countries, including shedding jobs and production in order to “buy” cooperation, first, to resist the Soviet Union and the spread of Communism, but later to try to buy friendship from China, of all countries! While our largesse wasn’t restricted to only China, the shift to our insidious pro-China tilt, in academia, in industry, and in our “grass-roots” politics, believe it or not, has weakened our will to defend America. The Biden regime has stopped enforcing requirements to reveal foreign sources of funds flowing to colleges and universities, most of it Chinese. Why would they do that?
It is safe to say that the timing of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was based on China’s “granting” permission to Putin. There may have been, it seems likely, some sort of permission from the W. E. F., as well. Russia had its forces gathered east of the Ukrainian border for more than a year; they could have invaded at any time. What made the winter of 2022 the “right” time? Prudence indicates that it is the presence of the Biden administration and a number of steps Biden has taken to soften U. S. policy towards China, both for responsibility for the Covid pandemic and with regards to China’s multiple efforts in other countries that have begun to compromise even southern Europe. An “America First” foreign policy would have the U. S. countering the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiatives around the world. What we must aggressively, diplomatically do is attempt to keep poorer countries from succumbing to China’s bait-and-switch. Instead, the Biden regime has ignored China’s encirclement. China has observed the shift in U. S. policy since Trump and, it seems, has decided that this period is when invading Taiwan might be most successful. It is unclear how much more encouragement China needs.
The final test has been observing how “the West,” most particularly the United States, deals with Russia’s aggression. At the same time, Russia’s abilities are also being evaluated. China is perfectly happy to fight to the last Russian, even as the West seems to be happy to fight to the last Ukrainian. Gaining such knowledge will be put to China’s advantage – everything is. China cares very little what happens to Ukraine or to Ukrainians; just as little about what happens to Russians and Russia, itself. Russia has been a rival of China’s almost since Mao Tse Tung took over. China is playing a century-long game with respect to Russia, too. Helping Russia, now, buying its oil and gas, for example, may, in China’s view result in the acquisition of far eastern Russia, enabling the encirclement of Korea and Japan and control of key parts of the Pacific. If you’re thinking that , “… oh, China would never try to do that…” then you haven’t been watching its creation of artificial islands and their militarization and disturbing encroachment upon the Phillipines, and Taiwan. Indeed, the entire arc of Southeast and South Asia is waiting to see how the U. S. responds to China’s expansionism. No other country in the world can oppose China and the globalization of Communism.
Interestingly, the World Economic Forum is pushing capitalist countries toward global unification, obviously under the benign management of bankers and oligarchs. This is diametrically opposed to China’s plan for world hegemony, under the benign management of the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP. Where the W. E. F. says that in the future we won’t “own” anything and therefore we’ll be happy, the CCP believes we’ll be happier under their form of Communism and total social control that our ephemeral “freedom” fails to afford us: not that different in net. Neither option will be “Constitutional,” and no one but the United States will be a defender of the principles of our nation. This part of our exceptionalism is being constantly eroded BY AMERICANS! Even people we have elected to our own Congress are actively attempting to destroy our Constitutional culture, now reinforced by a Biden administration that is compromised by BOTH China and Russia! Interestingly, Biden’s family is even compromised by Ukraine! What a mess. Just be certain, in your heart of hearts, that NEITHER THE W.E.F. OR THE C.C.P OPTION IS IN THE UNITED STATE’S INTEREST!
Prudence is deeply concerned about the ascendancy of the oligarchy in the U. S. and elsewhere in the West. Multi-billionaires do not respect Main Street, U. S. A., nor do they respect the basic family values that drive American culture. Moms, Dads, marriage, Christianity and children raised by parents, are not the path to power that oligarchs crave. The general morality of the ultra-rich is quite different from that of most moms and dads – by some reports, rather depraved. When one’s fortune reaches a certain size, the impetus to make governments protect that fortune becomes paramount. Politicians, unfortunately, are unusually attracted to power and money much like true oligarchs, although they are not smart enough to earn the billions to gain economic entry to the oligarchs’ club. So, sadly, many are willing to sell-out to the real power brokers, because re-election is equally sought-after. There is a relative handful of true patriots or statesmen and women in office who will sacrifice to protect the last best hope of mankind.
Wow! All of this from the “Ukraine” problem? May God protect that nation and its people.